Robots Watching Football: 2023: Week 11

Sunday, November 12, 2023

2023: Week 11

The Week 11 results are just more evidence that I have work to do to improve the ranking. (Or maybe I should ditch the defaults.)

The ranking converged in 574 rounds, similar to last week. Unfortunately, the results are worse: the only reasonable team in the Top 25 is at number 18. The upset stats are just about the same, though:

Ranking Stats

Upsets: 655 of 3851 games (17.008569202804466%)
Margins of Victory in upsets: 6733 (8.352768955934895% of total margin points)

Here are the top 25. As normal, you can try to do better here: http://kyleburke.info/collegeFootball/cfbRanking.php

Kutztown
Shepherd
East Stroudsburg
Slippery Rock
California PA
New Haven
Indiana PA
Bentley
West Chester
Assumption
Millersville
Lock Haven
St Anselm
Bloomsburg
Shippensburg
Seton Hill
Gannon
Florida St
Southern Conn St
Texas
Michigan
Washington
Ohio State
Oregon
Louisville

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Ranker Properties

Some important facts about the ranking algorithm used here:

* The dates of the games are independent. Losing early in the season is just as detrimental as losing later in the season.

* Prior ranking does not affect the value of a matchup. If a team is ranked number 1 early on, but then lose their first week, the team that beats them does not get any bonus for beating them while they were ranked high. The value of that win will change every week.

* It does not pay attention to whether a game was Home or Away. (This is the most reasonable change to the algorithm that could be made, I believe.)

* It does not care what league or division each team is in. This means that often non-FBS teams appear on the Top 25 Overall list. One problem with this is that I can't easily "harvest" the NAIA results for this blog. If you know of a way to do that, please let me know so I can add those results! Currently there are some NAIA teams that appear because they play NCAA teams, but their schedules are incomplete.

Possible Future Features

Some functionality I would like to add:

* A record of the number of upsets and points-in-upsets each week.

* Comparison of this list to other lists (BCS, AP, Blogpoll, USA) by showing relative differences for teams, as well as comparing the number of upsets per week.

* An interactive page for tinkering with the parameters so visitors can try out alternative rankings. (This one will likely be the hardest!)

Sadly, I'm always quite busy in the fall, which is when I'm also most motivated to make changes!