Thursday, August 26, 2010

Last Year's Report (with sine function)

Before posting any code, I'm busy polishing it up to make sure it "looks good". In the meantime, I figured I'd post last year's results.

I'm not entirely convinced that the sine curve is the best, after taking a look at these results again... Hopefully I'll make a decision before this season starts!

Any thoughts? I'd love to hear them!

Top 25 Overall:

2009 Final
RankTeamRatingRecord
1Alabama1.0(14-0)
2Florida0.8453084110356731(13-1)
3Iowa0.7980851492713539(11-2)
4Ohio St.0.7959272934250403(11-2)
5Wis.-Whitewater0.7931014121688159(15-0)
6Villanova0.7784667208618657(14-1)
7Mount Union0.7784429732843677(14-1)
8Texas0.7743477839757599(13-1)
9Virginia Tech0.773191196612621(10-3)
10Northwest Mo. St.0.7651473177760857(14-1)
11TCU0.7561842463663239(12-1)
12Boise St.0.7422858729365828(14-0)
13Georgia Tech0.739435565048572(11-3)
14Pittsburgh0.7295069053329452(10-3)
15Delaware Valley0.7238330857064403(10-2)
16Clemson0.7093994498215039(9-5)
17Cincinnati0.7010812158089512(12-1)
18Nebraska0.6966615385768201(10-4)
19Penn St.0.6898953468548779(11-2)
20William & Mary0.6889809994069834(11-3)
21Miami (FL)0.6870668432299284(9-4)
22Grand Valley St.0.685908538491301(13-2)
23Montana0.680877393300117(14-1)
24North Carolina0.6798263244814997(8-5)
25Wesley0.6713242891766065(13-1)



Top 25 in Division 1 (FBS):

2009 Final
RankTeamRatingRecord
1Alabama1.0(14-0)
2Florida0.8453084110356731(13-1)
3Iowa0.7980851492713539(11-2)
4Ohio St.0.7959272934250403(11-2)
5Texas0.7743477839757599(13-1)
6Virginia Tech0.773191196612621(10-3)
7TCU0.7561842463663239(12-1)
8Boise St.0.7422858729365828(14-0)
9Georgia Tech0.739435565048572(11-3)
10Pittsburgh0.7295069053329452(10-3)
11Clemson0.7093994498215039(9-5)
12Cincinnati0.7010812158089512(12-1)
13Nebraska0.6966615385768201(10-4)
14Penn St.0.6898953468548779(11-2)
15Miami (FL)0.6870668432299284(9-4)
16North Carolina0.6798263244814997(8-5)
17Oregon0.6674229741597587(10-3)
18Oklahoma0.6456962734233938(8-5)
19Texas Tech0.639030083187756(9-4)
20Wisconsin0.629403113243047(10-3)
21LSU0.624087758599014(9-4)
22West Virginia0.6203622415831133(9-4)
23Southern California0.6147801076029238(9-4)
24Arkansas0.6086752158140657(8-5)
25Connecticut0.6073067203910404(8-5)



Top 25 in Division 1 (FCS):

2009 Final
RankTeamRatingRecord
1Villanova0.7784667208618657(14-1)
2William & Mary0.6889809994069834(11-3)
3Montana0.680877393300117(14-1)
4Richmond0.6465949469657015(11-2)
5Appalachian St.0.6240916117263432(11-3)
6Penn0.5705862808700499(8-2)
7Southern Ill.0.5693203890449489(11-2)
8Lafayette0.5683797404977817(8-3)
9South Carolina St.0.5545719247757372(10-2)
10Prairie View0.5369545246114935(9-1)
11Holy Cross0.5336628923765148(9-3)
12New Hampshire0.5321152434443531(10-3)
13Dayton0.5314277653219569(9-2)
14Elon0.523911066979941(9-3)
15Albany (NY)0.5120847879996884(7-4)
16Colgate0.5060168197175257(9-2)
17Butler0.4992754578291487(11-1)
18Central Conn. St.0.49456101517492934(9-3)
19UNI0.49175699489806335(7-4)
20Delaware0.48472355576395554(6-5)
21Jacksonville St.0.4793301633323951(8-3)
22James Madison0.4705975202189122(6-5)
23Grambling0.46987625299272295(7-4)
24Harvard0.4694050577362635(7-3)
25South Dakota St.0.46891425825015565(8-4)



Top 25 in Division 2:

2009 Final
RankTeamRatingRecord
1Northwest Mo. St.0.7651473177760857(14-1)
2Grand Valley St.0.685908538491301(13-2)
3North Ala.0.6561898713927847(11-2)
4Central Wash.0.6514076575505942(12-1)
5Bentley0.6227502205878906(8-2)
6California (PA)0.6049365349330225(11-4)
7Carson-Newman0.5790381838220421(11-3)
8Bloomsburg0.5631765643839286(8-3)
9Southern Conn. St.0.5592674450522522(6-4)
10Merrimack0.559002250201329(7-3)
11Washburn0.5469910644776446(8-3)
12Midwestern St.0.5448958278187014(9-3)
13Minn. Duluth0.5378690030295155(11-2)
14Abilene Christian0.5377710327219685(9-4)
15Shippensburg0.529358690152923(9-3)
16Minn. St. Mankato0.5220260722540468(10-2)
17Neb.-Kearney0.514085269111764(11-2)
18Mo. Western St.0.5131292460979857(9-3)
19American Int'l0.5105344017677981(5-5)
20West Liberty St.0.5078047611140849(11-2)
21Tuskegee0.5067991980412246(10-2)
22Assumption0.49876216046245425(6-4)
23Hillsdale0.49025596096312263(10-3)
24Tex. A&M-Kingsville0.4832649948846188(9-3)
25Saginaw Valley0.48264592956391617(9-3)



Top 25 in Division 3:

2009 Final
RankTeamRatingRecord
1Wis.-Whitewater0.7931014121688159(15-0)
2Mount Union0.7784429732843677(14-1)
3Delaware Valley0.7238330857064403(10-2)
4Wesley0.6713242891766065(13-1)
5St. Thomas (MN)0.6664158425336424(11-2)
6Hampden-Sydney0.6265101435636997(10-1)
7Albright0.6259725326526914(11-2)
8St. John's (MN)0.6253033326691142(10-1)
9Central (IA)0.6181967737796882(10-1)
10North Central (IL)0.6004163792907738(8-2)
11Johns Hopkins0.5863897199077175(10-3)
12Ill. Wesleyan0.5849847531733094(10-2)
13Wittenberg0.5644283321666279(12-1)
14Ohio Northern0.5638373816157844(8-2)
15Thomas More0.5633415261106778(11-1)
16N.C. Wesleyan0.5581973916844802(8-3)
17Linfield0.547007808560474(12-1)
18Lebanon Valley0.546116762038962(9-2)
19Wheaton (IL)0.541262391729009(7-3)
20Bethel (MN)0.5386053672795033(7-3)
21Coe0.5361263280465675(10-2)
22St. John Fisher0.5336315659703305(7-3)
23Wis.-Stevens Point0.5308782675653215(7-3)
24Huntingdon0.5216159526302369(8-2)
25Alfred0.5188360049759888(8-2)



Overall rankings:

2009 Results
Using function fitting score differences to a sinusoidal wave
1: Alabama (14-0) with rating: 1.0
2: Florida (13-1) with rating: 0.8453084110356731
3: Iowa (11-2) with rating: 0.7980851492713539
4: Ohio St. (11-2) with rating: 0.7959272934250403
5: Wis.-Whitewater (15-0) with rating: 0.7931014121688159
6: Villanova (14-1) with rating: 0.7784667208618657
7: Mount Union (14-1) with rating: 0.7784429732843677
8: Texas (13-1) with rating: 0.7743477839757599
9: Virginia Tech (10-3) with rating: 0.773191196612621
10: Northwest Mo. St. (14-1) with rating: 0.7651473177760857
11: TCU (12-1) with rating: 0.7561842463663239
12: Boise St. (14-0) with rating: 0.7422858729365828
13: Georgia Tech (11-3) with rating: 0.739435565048572
14: Pittsburgh (10-3) with rating: 0.7295069053329452
15: Delaware Valley (10-2) with rating: 0.7238330857064403
16: Clemson (9-5) with rating: 0.7093994498215039
17: Cincinnati (12-1) with rating: 0.7010812158089512
18: Nebraska (10-4) with rating: 0.6966615385768201
19: Penn St. (11-2) with rating: 0.6898953468548779
20: William & Mary (11-3) with rating: 0.6889809994069834
21: Miami (FL) (9-4) with rating: 0.6870668432299284
22: Grand Valley St. (13-2) with rating: 0.685908538491301
23: Montana (14-1) with rating: 0.680877393300117
24: North Carolina (8-5) with rating: 0.6798263244814997
25: Wesley (13-1) with rating: 0.6713242891766065
26: Oregon (10-3) with rating: 0.6674229741597587
27: St. Thomas (MN) (11-2) with rating: 0.6664158425336424
28: North Ala. (11-2) with rating: 0.6561898713927847
29: Central Wash. (12-1) with rating: 0.6514076575505942
30: Richmond (11-2) with rating: 0.6465949469657015
31: Oklahoma (8-5) with rating: 0.6456962734233938
32: Texas Tech (9-4) with rating: 0.639030083187756
33: Wisconsin (10-3) with rating: 0.629403113243047
34: Hampden-Sydney (10-1) with rating: 0.6265101435636997
35: Albright (11-2) with rating: 0.6259725326526914
36: St. John's (MN) (10-1) with rating: 0.6253033326691142
37: Appalachian St. (11-3) with rating: 0.6240916117263432
38: LSU (9-4) with rating: 0.624087758599014
39: Bentley (8-2) with rating: 0.6227502205878906
40: West Virginia (9-4) with rating: 0.6203622415831133
41: Central (IA) (10-1) with rating: 0.6181967737796882
42: Southern California (9-4) with rating: 0.6147801076029238
43: Arkansas (8-5) with rating: 0.6086752158140657
44: Connecticut (8-5) with rating: 0.6073067203910404
45: California (PA) (11-4) with rating: 0.6049365349330225
46: Stanford (8-5) with rating: 0.6047745040974619
47: BYU (11-2) with rating: 0.6036574043412121
48: Mississippi (9-4) with rating: 0.6012396976387745
49: North Central (IL) (8-2) with rating: 0.6004163792907738
50: Florida St. (7-6) with rating: 0.5991548902789711
51: Auburn (8-5) with rating: 0.5935459042305998
52: Johns Hopkins (10-3) with rating: 0.5863897199077175
53: Ill. Wesleyan (10-2) with rating: 0.5849847531733094
54: Oklahoma St. (9-4) with rating: 0.5848577046279532
55: Carson-Newman (11-3) with rating: 0.5790381838220421
56: Arizona (8-5) with rating: 0.5743683876850015
57: Penn (8-2) with rating: 0.5705862808700499
58: Southern Ill. (11-2) with rating: 0.5693203890449489
59: Lafayette (8-3) with rating: 0.5683797404977817
60: Georgia (8-5) with rating: 0.566219971490126
61: Wittenberg (12-1) with rating: 0.5644283321666279
62: Ohio Northern (8-2) with rating: 0.5638373816157844
63: Thomas More (11-1) with rating: 0.5633415261106778
64: Bloomsburg (8-3) with rating: 0.5631765643839286
65: Southern Conn. St. (6-4) with rating: 0.5592674450522522
66: Merrimack (7-3) with rating: 0.559002250201329
67: Navy (10-4) with rating: 0.5586114944062657
68: N.C. Wesleyan (8-3) with rating: 0.5581973916844802
69: Utah (10-3) with rating: 0.5551950634428289
70: South Carolina St. (10-2) with rating: 0.5545719247757372
71: Wake Forest (5-7) with rating: 0.5530507046322908
72: Linfield (12-1) with rating: 0.547007808560474
73: Washburn (8-3) with rating: 0.5469910644776446
74: Lebanon Valley (9-2) with rating: 0.546116762038962
75: Midwestern St. (9-3) with rating: 0.5448958278187014
76: Wheaton (IL) (7-3) with rating: 0.541262391729009
77: Oregon St. (8-5) with rating: 0.5410204388402425
78: Bethel (MN) (7-3) with rating: 0.5386053672795033
79: Minn. Duluth (11-2) with rating: 0.5378690030295155
80: Abilene Christian (9-4) with rating: 0.5377710327219685
81: Prairie View (9-1) with rating: 0.5369545246114935
82: Coe (10-2) with rating: 0.5361263280465675
83: Central Mich. (12-2) with rating: 0.5340752908962296
84: Holy Cross (9-3) with rating: 0.5336628923765148
85: St. John Fisher (7-3) with rating: 0.5336315659703305
86: New Hampshire (10-3) with rating: 0.5321152434443531
87: Dayton (9-2) with rating: 0.5314277653219569
88: Wis.-Stevens Point (7-3) with rating: 0.5308782675653215
89: Shippensburg (9-3) with rating: 0.529358690152923
90: Tennessee (7-6) with rating: 0.5286975854114118
91: Rutgers (9-4) with rating: 0.528286208175439
92: Elon (9-3) with rating: 0.523911066979941
93: South Fla. (8-5) with rating: 0.5234713918262747
94: California (8-5) with rating: 0.5223194372068451
95: Minn. St. Mankato (10-2) with rating: 0.5220260722540468
96: Huntingdon (8-2) with rating: 0.5216159526302369
97: Notre Dame (6-6) with rating: 0.5195954512221422
98: Alfred (8-2) with rating: 0.5188360049759888
99: Houston (10-4) with rating: 0.5180382010598668
100: Neb.-Kearney (11-2) with rating: 0.514085269111764
101: Mo. Western St. (9-3) with rating: 0.5131292460979857
102: Springfield (8-2) with rating: 0.513087877670683
103: Albany (NY) (7-4) with rating: 0.5120847879996884
104: American Int'l (5-5) with rating: 0.5105344017677981
105: Wabash (9-2) with rating: 0.5098090017073007
106: Boston College (8-5) with rating: 0.5097800297575265
107: South Carolina (7-6) with rating: 0.5085355472782295
108: West Liberty St. (11-2) with rating: 0.5078047611140849
109: Air Force (8-5) with rating: 0.5070051786876448
110: Montclair St. (10-2) with rating: 0.5069904135958889
111: Tuskegee (10-2) with rating: 0.5067991980412246
112: Wis.-Stout (8-2) with rating: 0.5063155794453279
113: East Carolina (9-5) with rating: 0.5062108998034829
114: Colgate (9-2) with rating: 0.5060168197175257
115: Augustana (IL) (6-4) with rating: 0.5056999075686887
116: Monmouth (IL) (10-1) with rating: 0.5042851774322051
117: Butler (11-1) with rating: 0.4992754578291487
118: Assumption (6-4) with rating: 0.49876216046245425
119: Michigan St. (6-7) with rating: 0.497928005794963
120: Kean (9-2) with rating: 0.4967039920366665
121: Central Conn. St. (9-3) with rating: 0.49456101517492934
122: Minnesota (6-7) with rating: 0.4920240459641575
123: UNI (7-4) with rating: 0.49175699489806335
124: Hillsdale (10-3) with rating: 0.49025596096312263
125: Case (10-1) with rating: 0.48514835394477984
126: Delaware (6-5) with rating: 0.48472355576395554
127: Capital (7-3) with rating: 0.4835297910738102
128: Frank. & Marsh. (9-2) with rating: 0.4833958045484854
129: Tex. A&M-Kingsville (9-3) with rating: 0.4832649948846188
130: Saginaw Valley (9-3) with rating: 0.48264592956391617
131: Purdue (5-7) with rating: 0.480330593611492
132: West Chester (7-4) with rating: 0.4802313751241226
133: Arkansas Tech (9-3) with rating: 0.4793796951746051
134: Jacksonville St. (8-3) with rating: 0.4793301633323951
135: Missouri (8-5) with rating: 0.4790023529256131
136: SMU (8-5) with rating: 0.47776286036247795
137: Charleston (WV) (9-2) with rating: 0.4763987769997964
138: Trine (10-2) with rating: 0.4742646058526814
139: Albany St. (GA) (8-3) with rating: 0.4740487258340875
140: Mary Hardin-Baylor (10-2) with rating: 0.4731397763881168
141: Wayne St. (NE) (8-3) with rating: 0.47109296564874625
142: James Madison (6-5) with rating: 0.4705975202189122
143: Grambling (7-4) with rating: 0.46987625299272295
144: Harvard (7-3) with rating: 0.4694050577362635
145: Mississippi Col. (9-3) with rating: 0.46921353225457474
146: Edinboro (9-4) with rating: 0.46910852710496265
147: South Dakota St. (8-4) with rating: 0.46891425825015565
148: Texas St. (7-4) with rating: 0.4666325071065248
149: St. Norbert (9-1) with rating: 0.46615564998649583
150: Westfield St. (7-3) with rating: 0.4660526160941262
151: Maine Maritime (9-2) with rating: 0.4656344069198072
152: Northwestern (8-5) with rating: 0.4649799131130381
153: McNeese St. (9-3) with rating: 0.46395555524986354
154: Tarleton St. (10-3) with rating: 0.4626044829032505
155: Stephen F. Austin (10-3) with rating: 0.4619338577020139
156: Newberry (6-4) with rating: 0.4617983057743249
157: Union (NY) (8-3) with rating: 0.4606211700013797
158: Randolph-Macon (6-4) with rating: 0.45930185582497385
159: Kentucky (7-6) with rating: 0.4583267382896512
160: Clarion (8-3) with rating: 0.4569464231442204
161: Troy (9-4) with rating: 0.45670514132701234
162: Dickinson (8-2) with rating: 0.456600782828553
163: West Tex. A&M (7-5) with rating: 0.4555200969944605
164: Liberty (8-3) with rating: 0.45487465660722326
165: Bridgewater (VA) (7-3) with rating: 0.4548736508926918
166: Emory & Henry (7-3) with rating: 0.45426212855494763
167: Central Mo. (8-3) with rating: 0.4537080660749614
168: Hofstra (5-6) with rating: 0.4524977854392185
169: Ithaca (7-3) with rating: 0.4509807924104613
170: Eastern Wash. (8-4) with rating: 0.45002683943186783
171: West Ala. (8-5) with rating: 0.4484650586393051
172: Bryant (5-6) with rating: 0.4479772764857147
173: East Stroudsburg (8-4) with rating: 0.4471184644895164
174: Otterbein (8-2) with rating: 0.44689700606250293
175: Bemidji St. (8-3) with rating: 0.4463122684054496
176: Rowan (7-3) with rating: 0.44573429027657163
177: Marshall (7-6) with rating: 0.445020060870974
178: Middle Tenn. (10-3) with rating: 0.44347220802431997
179: UNC Pembroke (9-2) with rating: 0.44093114795214405
180: Mt. St. Joseph (9-2) with rating: 0.4405276900280346
181: Temple (9-4) with rating: 0.43988016273530695
182: Neb.-Omaha (7-5) with rating: 0.43982944644789723
183: Texas A&M (6-7) with rating: 0.43926809327267824
184: Brown (6-4) with rating: 0.43753924548862067
185: Curry (8-3) with rating: 0.43736127082619214
186: North Carolina St. (5-7) with rating: 0.43472783524739333
187: Carthage (7-3) with rating: 0.43286584875849277
188: Shaw (8-2) with rating: 0.43150102250604483
189: Susquehanna (8-3) with rating: 0.4314496217461967
190: Jacksonville (7-4) with rating: 0.4308751696173527
191: Weber St. (7-5) with rating: 0.429787590096938
192: Mississippi St. (5-7) with rating: 0.4292708383004059
193: Ohio (9-5) with rating: 0.4290357366284887
194: Iowa St. (7-6) with rating: 0.4289792129520089
195: Drake (8-3) with rating: 0.4284267334559776
196: Fayetteville St. (8-4) with rating: 0.4281669779029823
197: Nevada (8-5) with rating: 0.4278770412939079
198: Wingate (7-3) with rating: 0.42741585172740504
199: Florida A&M (8-3) with rating: 0.4267906616389122
200: Shepherd (6-4) with rating: 0.426404440391985
201: Washington (5-7) with rating: 0.426234604716083
202: Fresno St. (8-5) with rating: 0.42547162444091746
203: Alabama A&M (7-5) with rating: 0.4230983216242018
204: Southern Utah (5-6) with rating: 0.42246983027053275
205: UCLA (7-6) with rating: 0.4202994002358599
206: South Dakota (5-5) with rating: 0.42010266909902116
207: UCF (8-5) with rating: 0.41924083820564195
208: Averett (7-3) with rating: 0.4189466717896345
209: Massachusetts (5-6) with rating: 0.4180268494464503
210: Old Dominion (9-2) with rating: 0.4180033338732706
211: Eastern Ill. (8-4) with rating: 0.417601068972849
212: Southern Miss. (7-6) with rating: 0.4173475505279197
213: Chris. Newport (5-5) with rating: 0.4170093410571257
214: Wash. & Jeff. (9-2) with rating: 0.4157449018283078
215: Bridgewater St. (7-3) with rating: 0.41507644362047424
216: Fort Valley St. (7-4) with rating: 0.41456131288251596
217: Wis.-Eau Claire (6-4) with rating: 0.4101644182962143
218: Wis.-Oshkosh (4-6) with rating: 0.40833713700878094
219: Wilkes (6-5) with rating: 0.40744924681344974
220: Ouachita Baptist (6-4) with rating: 0.40456852430844503
221: Greenville (7-3) with rating: 0.4038956009434562
222: Wagner (6-5) with rating: 0.4037277406173104
223: Kansas St. (6-6) with rating: 0.4020886481613313
224: Millsaps (7-3) with rating: 0.399587813390719
225: St. Olaf (5-5) with rating: 0.39890929025068833
226: Norfolk St. (7-4) with rating: 0.39726813250813287
227: Findlay (7-4) with rating: 0.3968001293743362
228: Central Ark. (5-7) with rating: 0.3965736501224364
229: Stonehill (5-5) with rating: 0.396324906627449
230: Robert Morris (5-6) with rating: 0.39569738215399153
231: C.W. Post (6-5) with rating: 0.39454527103263826
232: Kansas (5-7) with rating: 0.3930837498277515
233: Cortland St. (7-4) with rating: 0.3928596816636043
234: Ursinus (6-5) with rating: 0.3924219139983963
235: Wartburg (6-4) with rating: 0.39228286691951386
236: Michigan (5-7) with rating: 0.39130314980948855
237: Mars Hill (6-4) with rating: 0.39129483514458574
238: Columbia (4-6) with rating: 0.3904892340254904
239: Willamette (8-2) with rating: 0.3897774749524616
240: Northern Mich. (6-4) with rating: 0.3886765471945861
241: Montana St. (7-4) with rating: 0.38673951612451407
242: Augustana (SD) (8-4) with rating: 0.38641014475745916
243: Valdosta St. (6-4) with rating: 0.3854799154475954
244: Samford (5-6) with rating: 0.384523789938671
245: Maine (5-6) with rating: 0.38377035636869716
246: Bowling Green (7-6) with rating: 0.3835085867911243
247: Concordia Chicago (8-2) with rating: 0.3832616457058967
248: Indiana (PA) (5-6) with rating: 0.38280635927912543
249: Southern U. (6-5) with rating: 0.38181807292764347
250: Bowie St. (6-5) with rating: 0.3805252114617318
251: Colorado Mines (8-3) with rating: 0.37953191233447536
252: Angelo St. (6-5) with rating: 0.3792990424088285
253: Northwood (MI) (7-3) with rating: 0.37919187406103017
254: Monmouth (5-6) with rating: 0.37871972034813717
255: St. Cloud St. (7-4) with rating: 0.37860446188543684
256: Plymouth St. (8-3) with rating: 0.37651425698794383
257: Glenville St. (7-4) with rating: 0.3764934046213325
258: Winona St. (7-4) with rating: 0.3762957971104287
259: UC Davis (6-5) with rating: 0.37434980783584715
260: Pittsburg St. (5-6) with rating: 0.3733809923553808
261: Greensboro (6-4) with rating: 0.3709166252962497
262: Benedict (8-3) with rating: 0.3700646190040313
263: Adrian (6-4) with rating: 0.36838007443669096
264: Lenoir-Rhyne (5-6) with rating: 0.36773472257339945
265: Ferrum (5-5) with rating: 0.36763280060834247
266: Millikin (6-4) with rating: 0.3675486127281141
267: Rose-Hulman (6-4) with rating: 0.36708346250640655
268: Lake Erie (7-4) with rating: 0.36706242740226747
269: Allegheny (8-2) with rating: 0.3662313142885544
270: UTEP (4-8) with rating: 0.36596448111017266
271: Northern Ill. (7-6) with rating: 0.3653298362488724
272: Ashland (6-5) with rating: 0.36495538685464246
273: Humboldt St. (5-5) with rating: 0.3648720620316459
274: Cal Lutheran (8-2) with rating: 0.36463302457342783
275: Fordham (5-6) with rating: 0.3641163165878113
276: Stony Brook (6-5) with rating: 0.3636562349743445
277: Furman (6-5) with rating: 0.3630081325996013
278: Franklin (7-3) with rating: 0.3618131319879414
279: Idaho (8-5) with rating: 0.36103896652602996
280: Lehigh (4-7) with rating: 0.3608627284775029
281: Louisiana Col. (7-3) with rating: 0.360157187486116
282: Ripon (7-3) with rating: 0.3598201371537034
283: Marist (7-4) with rating: 0.35957570656752147
284: Northwestern (MN) (5-5) with rating: 0.35869221176481114
285: Rochester (NY) (4-6) with rating: 0.3585810124344724
286: Buffalo (5-7) with rating: 0.3584995315464764
287: Arizona St. (4-8) with rating: 0.35777085958518684
288: Norwich (8-3) with rating: 0.3574923480892187
289: Southeastern La. (6-5) with rating: 0.3566275358173393
290: Gannon (6-5) with rating: 0.3563374955395203
291: Fort Hays St. (6-5) with rating: 0.35599394342920676
292: Syracuse (4-8) with rating: 0.35476753426765617
293: DePauw (7-3) with rating: 0.35446700724364877
294: Chadron St. (7-4) with rating: 0.35411795539817936
295: Northern Ariz. (5-6) with rating: 0.35388542243450694
296: Concordia-M'head (5-5) with rating: 0.35323194344685527
297: Morehouse (7-3) with rating: 0.3526487837003375
298: Citadel (4-7) with rating: 0.35213516109736287
299: Delta St. (5-5) with rating: 0.3514850010326813
300: North Dakota (6-5) with rating: 0.34921936799573733
301: Eastern Ky. (5-6) with rating: 0.34899534718844094
302: Salisbury (5-6) with rating: 0.34837859189465614
303: Martin Luther (7-3) with rating: 0.3481207691397993
304: Chattanooga (6-5) with rating: 0.34803113582753403
305: New Haven (5-5) with rating: 0.34609550477990664
306: Elizabeth City St. (7-4) with rating: 0.3455507186706446
307: Lycoming (4-6) with rating: 0.34324204714761974
308: Virginia (3-9) with rating: 0.34317422595463454
309: UAB (5-7) with rating: 0.34242084022656616
310: Wis.-River Falls (3-7) with rating: 0.34236091657993706
311: Kent St. (5-7) with rating: 0.3422892664609136
312: Colorado St.-Pueblo (7-4) with rating: 0.3421331773439353
313: Slippery Rock (6-5) with rating: 0.34192428943751774
314: Hawaii (6-7) with rating: 0.3418118108958574
315: Wm. Paterson (5-5) with rating: 0.341743352201072
316: Duke (5-7) with rating: 0.34170170386470133
317: Catawba (4-6) with rating: 0.34034989182594294
318: Ga. Southern (5-6) with rating: 0.3379906146630917
319: Indiana (4-8) with rating: 0.337028024579162
320: Trinity (TX) (7-3) with rating: 0.33604527345075597
321: Wash. & Lee (3-7) with rating: 0.33482286783074167
322: Wayne St. (MI) (6-5) with rating: 0.33461041356122817
323: Maryland (2-10) with rating: 0.33349863866228335
324: Hampton (5-6) with rating: 0.33162510558843883
325: Wyoming (7-6) with rating: 0.3300452334333056
326: Hope (3-7) with rating: 0.32986858203976316
327: Wis.-La Crosse (5-5) with rating: 0.3292937772849664
328: Hardin-Simmons (6-4) with rating: 0.32880028228077396
329: Louisiana Tech (4-8) with rating: 0.32791358571688056
330: Virginia Union (6-4) with rating: 0.3264359253982016
331: Virginia St. (6-4) with rating: 0.3264217502900634
332: Concord (6-5) with rating: 0.3243890874249127
333: Cal Poly (4-7) with rating: 0.32427864491446445
334: Ark.-Monticello (5-6) with rating: 0.32303362039319483
335: Hamline (4-6) with rating: 0.3226703196752161
336: Wooster (5-5) with rating: 0.321467958410227
337: Maryville (TN) (4-6) with rating: 0.3213291772542769
338: Tulsa (5-7) with rating: 0.32128082063106506
339: Illinois St. (6-5) with rating: 0.32125362623910547
340: Baylor (4-8) with rating: 0.32035191989013373
341: Harding (5-6) with rating: 0.31795738197816115
342: Western Ore. (5-5) with rating: 0.3167893194817608
343: Tennessee St. (4-7) with rating: 0.3165630845798447
344: UNLV (5-7) with rating: 0.31516545461549933
345: Tennessee Tech (6-5) with rating: 0.3146895945649365
346: Wis. Lutheran (5-5) with rating: 0.3145583203780094
347: Utah St. (4-8) with rating: 0.312386908975781
348: San Diego (4-7) with rating: 0.3117105847058698
349: Western Mich. (5-7) with rating: 0.31119547197326275
350: Gardner-Webb (6-5) with rating: 0.3110139996891236
351: Hobart (6-3) with rating: 0.3108833487587134
352: Youngstown St. (6-5) with rating: 0.3108067015709552
353: Coastal Caro. (5-6) with rating: 0.3107358981919859
354: Yale (4-6) with rating: 0.31054014429110255
355: Gettysburg (3-7) with rating: 0.310491163871667
356: St. Augustine's (4-6) with rating: 0.30899446301971567
357: Missouri St. (6-5) with rating: 0.3088643799335707
358: King's (PA) (3-7) with rating: 0.3076514329195622
359: Merchant Marine (4-6) with rating: 0.30711056992361707
360: Kutztown (3-8) with rating: 0.30709909503416916
361: Lakeland (6-5) with rating: 0.30683066589277264
362: Delaware St. (4-6) with rating: 0.3063232007983907
363: Illinois (3-9) with rating: 0.30557049335982145
364: La.-Lafayette (6-6) with rating: 0.305258258382596
365: Maritime (NY) (6-4) with rating: 0.30487436841397186
366: Dixie St. (4-7) with rating: 0.3047580500480474
367: Salve Regina (4-6) with rating: 0.30394340823231003
368: Ark.-Pine Bluff (5-5) with rating: 0.30334356934639156
369: Tex. A&M-Commerce (5-5) with rating: 0.30331792877015695
370: Charleston So. (6-5) with rating: 0.3009259113470897
371: Morgan St. (6-5) with rating: 0.3001319027855831
372: Fla. Atlantic (5-7) with rating: 0.29982217721470894
373: Muhlenberg (3-7) with rating: 0.29963965139313764
374: Southeastern Okla. (7-4) with rating: 0.2993752223346805
375: Grove City (5-5) with rating: 0.29879197377741373
376: Luther (5-5) with rating: 0.2985978931627044
377: Southwest Baptist (6-5) with rating: 0.29805414322089907
378: Kentucky St. (6-5) with rating: 0.2976276938072988
379: Colorado St. (3-9) with rating: 0.2975374535145686
380: Endicott (5-5) with rating: 0.2974100010211254
381: Wis.-Platteville (3-7) with rating: 0.2969649625186681
382: La.-Monroe (6-6) with rating: 0.295432834652796
383: Carnegie Mellon (5-5) with rating: 0.2953873910127033
384: Buena Vista (4-6) with rating: 0.294753912594919
385: Shenandoah (1-9) with rating: 0.29462009237603004
386: Concordia (WI) (5-5) with rating: 0.2945552525294204
387: Hartwick (5-5) with rating: 0.29403511370772706
388: Texas Southern (6-5) with rating: 0.2938857581740759
389: John Carroll (3-7) with rating: 0.29377824760469384
390: Manchester (5-5) with rating: 0.2927016669180713
391: Beloit (6-4) with rating: 0.29181320978328207
392: Tenn.-Martin (5-6) with rating: 0.29132297611190655
393: Dubuque (5-5) with rating: 0.29079018350933106
394: N.C. A&T (4-6) with rating: 0.28960646531149487
395: Western New Eng. (6-4) with rating: 0.2894900780871772
396: San Diego St. (4-8) with rating: 0.28822588673790345
397: Colorado (3-9) with rating: 0.2870637625970758
398: Austin Peay (4-7) with rating: 0.28704067569732444
399: Arkansas St. (4-8) with rating: 0.2853617225914241
400: Mercyhurst (4-7) with rating: 0.2851107553897224
401: Benedictine (IL) (6-4) with rating: 0.28434196241952625
402: LaGrange (5-5) with rating: 0.28413417037964495
403: Pace (1-9) with rating: 0.2819624299477759
404: St. Anselm (2-8) with rating: 0.2818345608075718
405: Wofford (3-8) with rating: 0.28086488507113844
406: WPI (3-7) with rating: 0.27962447584918326
407: Defiance (4-6) with rating: 0.27919672450032207
408: Sam Houston St. (5-6) with rating: 0.27876686816035384
409: TCNJ (4-6) with rating: 0.27841811817113526
410: Duquesne (3-8) with rating: 0.277265526761354
411: Tusculum (3-7) with rating: 0.2769519069583739
412: Jackson St. (3-7) with rating: 0.2768930952549883
413: St. Lawrence (3-7) with rating: 0.2764441580681905
414: North Dakota St. (3-8) with rating: 0.2750617453893289
415: Gust. Adolphus (4-6) with rating: 0.2748556376222373
416: Bucknell (4-7) with rating: 0.27468801014271294
417: Brevard (7-4) with rating: 0.2743996477534487
418: Heidelberg (4-6) with rating: 0.2728408903370712
419: Centre (7-2) with rating: 0.27068721426319786
420: Augsburg (4-6) with rating: 0.27030478076590525
421: Muskingum (4-6) with rating: 0.2696149596992752
422: Princeton (4-6) with rating: 0.26961258012871736
423: Waynesburg (5-5) with rating: 0.2689761122318354
424: Southern Ark. (3-7) with rating: 0.2685473562680772
425: Baldwin-Wallace (3-7) with rating: 0.268062939238099
426: Bethune-Cookman (5-6) with rating: 0.26794242640888616
427: Elmhurst (4-6) with rating: 0.2678106545214523
428: Eureka (4-6) with rating: 0.2671507594913277
429: Mesa St. (5-6) with rating: 0.26699119632917545
430: Sacramento St. (5-6) with rating: 0.2669430420913138
431: Rensselaer (5-4) with rating: 0.26547720233093525
432: Davidson (3-7) with rating: 0.2648047633826123
433: Southwest Minn. St. (5-6) with rating: 0.26467860142976635
434: McMurry (4-6) with rating: 0.2640924360036988
435: Westminster (MO) (5-5) with rating: 0.26339114216776693
436: Guilford (3-7) with rating: 0.26326348558543905
437: Washington-St. Louis (4-6) with rating: 0.2630196233608736
438: Carroll (WI) (5-5) with rating: 0.26273907031571786
439: Howard Payne (4-6) with rating: 0.26190048715757336
440: Northern Colo. (3-8) with rating: 0.26180383939955376
441: Adams St. (5-6) with rating: 0.26170766333420803
442: Henderson St. (3-7) with rating: 0.26101767824439814
443: Brockport (4-6) with rating: 0.26095031078848063
444: Illinois Col. (5-5) with rating: 0.2609219876832498
445: Sacred Heart (2-8) with rating: 0.26050127367974485
446: Framingham St. (5-5) with rating: 0.25625391757574634
447: Birmingham-So. (4-6) with rating: 0.25423847413753964
448: Earlham (5-5) with rating: 0.25415042284119815
449: Central Okla. (4-7) with rating: 0.2540794661509532
450: Toledo (5-7) with rating: 0.2532836823682131
451: Louisville (4-8) with rating: 0.253177853581221
452: Gallaudet (6-4) with rating: 0.2528990090044807
453: Nicholls St. (3-8) with rating: 0.2528170690256635
454: McDaniel (5-5) with rating: 0.2512887259721108
455: Redlands (7-2) with rating: 0.2503605277064006
456: Tulane (3-9) with rating: 0.2501314330311756
457: Occidental (7-2) with rating: 0.24947003332516487
458: Mo. Southern St. (3-7) with rating: 0.24920861596877059
459: Widener (3-7) with rating: 0.2477956252598521
460: Western Caro. (2-9) with rating: 0.24758770580660042
461: Eastern N.M. (3-8) with rating: 0.24740658637225327
462: Albion (4-6) with rating: 0.24682867062726993
463: Kenyon (3-7) with rating: 0.24571265663708436
464: Utica (4-6) with rating: 0.2442851318473112
465: Amherst (8-0) with rating: 0.24387154462674251
466: Miles (4-7) with rating: 0.2429502698548174
467: Alma (5-5) with rating: 0.2409871014889396
468: Mass. Maritime (3-7) with rating: 0.23874776841422865
469: Whitworth (5-5) with rating: 0.2377666016145792
470: Simpson (3-7) with rating: 0.2373368918609908
471: Fairmont St. (3-8) with rating: 0.23606541191713867
472: Carleton (3-7) with rating: 0.23515019939180615
473: Millersville (3-8) with rating: 0.235007838997029
474: Fitchburg St. (4-6) with rating: 0.23409462190646094
475: Stillman (4-6) with rating: 0.2336450999433146
476: Army (5-7) with rating: 0.23214714925148472
477: Westminster (PA) (4-6) with rating: 0.23206587333344011
478: North Texas (2-10) with rating: 0.23101268100382605
479: Crown (MN) (4-6) with rating: 0.22961861463035996
480: FDU-Florham (2-8) with rating: 0.2277414332813018
481: Mary (5-6) with rating: 0.22642351733146085
482: Dartmouth (2-8) with rating: 0.22562889753961476
483: St. Francis (PA) (2-9) with rating: 0.22361179582219531
484: Akron (3-9) with rating: 0.22320306344231008
485: Marietta (3-7) with rating: 0.22193149749461938
486: N.C. Central (4-7) with rating: 0.2213617892905111
487: East Tex. Baptist (3-7) with rating: 0.22102331264552144
488: St. Scholastica (4-6) with rating: 0.22050364744271317
489: Indianapolis (4-7) with rating: 0.22013610765910607
490: Coast Guard (4-5) with rating: 0.21873205468602563
491: Ball St. (2-10) with rating: 0.21846983389655728
492: Methodist (3-7) with rating: 0.21760594222039406
493: Memphis (2-10) with rating: 0.2175372993420554
494: St. Joseph's (IN) (5-6) with rating: 0.21742410044162064
495: Murray St. (3-8) with rating: 0.2170698539105865
496: Loras (2-8) with rating: 0.21674381842890156
497: Chicago (5-4) with rating: 0.21479179184569258
498: Concordia-St. Paul (3-8) with rating: 0.21399106496554504
499: Williams (6-2) with rating: 0.21379944826925973
500: Cornell (2-8) with rating: 0.21369316304129482
501: Husson (4-5) with rating: 0.21342016365902705
502: Aurora (4-6) with rating: 0.2128901211304324
503: Kalamazoo (4-6) with rating: 0.21212308267879787
504: Alcorn St. (3-6) with rating: 0.211019318200488
505: Neb. Wesleyan (5-5) with rating: 0.20955405809529054
506: Campbell (3-8) with rating: 0.20722492962564815
507: Missouri S&T (4-7) with rating: 0.20554683336949706
508: Mount Ida (4-7) with rating: 0.20538093438891897
509: VMI (2-9) with rating: 0.20376117872854504
510: Denison (3-7) with rating: 0.20338254181078402
511: Winston-Salem (1-10) with rating: 0.20244506302509047
512: Trinity (CT) (6-2) with rating: 0.20232698913890504
513: FIU (3-9) with rating: 0.20211626476611186
514: Thiel (3-7) with rating: 0.20202820379184339
515: Truman (2-9) with rating: 0.20160031702418968
516: New Mexico St. (3-10) with rating: 0.20158245350250564
517: Austin (4-5) with rating: 0.20080921869522206
518: Cornell College (2-8) with rating: 0.20037007000245322
519: Nichols (4-6) with rating: 0.20033645646622875
520: Vanderbilt (2-10) with rating: 0.19977373338354465
521: St. Paul's (4-5) with rating: 0.19936038373799891
522: Morehead St. (3-8) with rating: 0.19850319303405306
523: Michigan Tech (2-8) with rating: 0.19784323439018792
524: Ohio Wesleyan (3-7) with rating: 0.19765027362915327
525: Upper Iowa (3-8) with rating: 0.19635614185087272
526: Hanover (3-7) with rating: 0.19629215644304812
527: Clark Atlanta (2-7) with rating: 0.19625364019897173
528: Menlo (4-6) with rating: 0.19575455980105066
529: Northeastern (3-8) with rating: 0.19547909369941052
530: Grinnell (2-8) with rating: 0.19277773583853347
531: San Jose St. (2-10) with rating: 0.19204618816761493
532: Middlebury (5-3) with rating: 0.18964615222358933
533: Okla. Panhandle (5-6) with rating: 0.18945191817778034
534: Catholic (1-9) with rating: 0.18858614842957977
535: Wilmington (OH) (1-9) with rating: 0.18850446842780672
536: Alabama St. (4-7) with rating: 0.18773511865106124
537: West Va. Wesleyan (2-8) with rating: 0.18707241038551115
538: Rice (2-10) with rating: 0.18675679127903788
539: Worcester St. (1-9) with rating: 0.1859992715300127
540: Sul Ross St. (2-8) with rating: 0.18598248992095165
541: Claremont-M-S (5-4) with rating: 0.18546138337402357
542: Portland St. (2-9) with rating: 0.18530610410122816
543: Minn.-Morris (4-6) with rating: 0.18446699375070358
544: Moravian (2-8) with rating: 0.18404508139381143
545: Bethany (WV) (3-7) with rating: 0.18363966658066622
546: Rhodes (3-7) with rating: 0.18253737029274583
547: Incarnate Word (4-5) with rating: 0.18229307489988866
548: Macalester (2-8) with rating: 0.18170712811212136
549: Lake Forest (2-8) with rating: 0.18150367575069506
550: Bowdoin (3-5) with rating: 0.1812677827037235
551: Western St. (3-8) with rating: 0.18109197926392404
552: Western Ill. (1-10) with rating: 0.17986024222927158
553: Mississippi Val. (3-8) with rating: 0.17901761077276274
554: Chowan (2-8) with rating: 0.17861923577338895
555: Southeast Mo. St. (2-9) with rating: 0.17769111192939685
556: Towson (2-9) with rating: 0.1775768867599179
557: West Virginia St. (3-7) with rating: 0.17738549900471928
558: Pacific Lutheran (3-6) with rating: 0.17729943470357273
559: Chapman (4-5) with rating: 0.1770303626002061
560: Rhode Island (1-10) with rating: 0.17655066985233409
561: Miami (OH) (1-11) with rating: 0.17585765669591713
562: Emporia St. (2-9) with rating: 0.1756861652984023
563: Western Conn. St. (2-8) with rating: 0.1749216086522128
564: Fort Lewis (2-9) with rating: 0.17211061182315235
565: New Mexico (1-11) with rating: 0.1720832705418029
566: Idaho St. (1-10) with rating: 0.171209675636895
567: MacMurray (1-9) with rating: 0.16932828747484108
568: Northeastern St. (2-9) with rating: 0.1683635910956623
569: Pomona-Pitzer (4-5) with rating: 0.1658141845857094
570: Colby (4-4) with rating: 0.16563465410068262
571: Oberlin (2-8) with rating: 0.16552558105777793
572: Western N.M. (2-8) with rating: 0.16526122416330108
573: Whittier (3-6) with rating: 0.1648689395904853
574: Johnson C. Smith (3-7) with rating: 0.1634545677422065
575: Northern St. (2-9) with rating: 0.15853763813331795
576: Savannah St. (2-8) with rating: 0.15838709981274404
577: Northwestern St. (0-11) with rating: 0.15790850021946973
578: Lincoln (PA) (3-7) with rating: 0.15610667354649677
579: Wesleyan (CT) (3-5) with rating: 0.1554769013299235
580: Buffalo St. (2-8) with rating: 0.1538844537800962
581: Frostburg St. (1-9) with rating: 0.15221898032928768
582: North Greenville (2-8) with rating: 0.1508904749659547
583: West Ga. (1-9) with rating: 0.1505717503909064
584: Howard (2-9) with rating: 0.15007776603882503
585: East Central (0-11) with rating: 0.14940922923963562
586: Washington St. (1-11) with rating: 0.14718929225984514
587: Ky. Wesleyan (2-9) with rating: 0.14594232320112727
588: Tufts (2-6) with rating: 0.14406547808066533
589: Central St. (OH) (1-10) with rating: 0.14350784121103807
590: Southwestern Okla. (1-10) with rating: 0.14244205597347273
591: North Park (1-9) with rating: 0.14232180212473725
592: Eastern Mich. (0-12) with rating: 0.14136787274341828
593: Valparaiso (1-10) with rating: 0.14126318400112062
594: Lewis & Clark (2-7) with rating: 0.14108006297833736
595: Lawrence (2-8) with rating: 0.14025476027139067
596: Western Ky. (0-12) with rating: 0.1398706579960129
597: Lane (0-10) with rating: 0.13971803716225467
598: Minn. St. Moorhead (2-9) with rating: 0.13643190265134814
599: Georgetown (0-11) with rating: 0.13578455417492863
600: Ferris St. (1-10) with rating: 0.1347363143201003
601: Hamilton (2-6) with rating: 0.13434162334672653
602: Morrisville St. (1-9) with rating: 0.13386513395156313
603: Anderson (IN) (1-9) with rating: 0.1331198574772727
604: Knox (1-9) with rating: 0.13173763930198118
605: N.M. Highlands (1-10) with rating: 0.13128281312906806
606: Castleton St. (3-6) with rating: 0.13038251891951394
607: Juniata (1-9) with rating: 0.12809904046659318
608: Texas Lutheran (0-10) with rating: 0.12774358439801628
609: MIT (1-8) with rating: 0.12614643428370162
610: Bates (1-7) with rating: 0.12402294568643486
611: Seton Hill (1-10) with rating: 0.12306741640331444
612: Olivet (0-10) with rating: 0.1229763242266168
613: Minn.-Crookston (1-10) with rating: 0.12272760895730646
614: Indiana St. (1-10) with rating: 0.12270894540376193
615: Presbyterian (0-11) with rating: 0.12247374632156348
616: Sewanee (0-9) with rating: 0.12246411357987302
617: Hiram (0-10) with rating: 0.12198919828830024
618: La Verne (0-9) with rating: 0.12163156575407513
619: Tiffin (0-11) with rating: 0.11473570056889965
620: Puget Sound (0-9) with rating: 0.1144899043295026
621: Rockford (1-9) with rating: 0.11345657539160857
622: Mass.-Dartmouth (0-10) with rating: 0.11191211673194129
623: Lincoln (MO) (0-11) with rating: 0.1091973780852175
624: Becker (0-10) with rating: 0.10644040842864524
625: Maranatha Baptist (0-10) with rating: 0.10570256673155386
626: Anna Maria (0-9) with rating: 0.1051684112236976
627: Livingstone (0-10) with rating: 0.10380328134663223
628: Lock Haven (0-10) with rating: 0.10151291576504742
629: Cheyney (0-11) with rating: 0.1010644288308693
630: Bluffton (0-10) with rating: 0.10053643780212601

Sunday, August 22, 2010

(Yet Another) College Football Ranker

I love arguing about College Football, but I believe that we need a method for determining which teams actually deserve to be ranked higher than others. The two "best" teams get to play for the title at the end of the year, and we need an objective way to find those two best teams from the results of the regular season.

Thus, an algorithm. Instead of having humans bring all their bias to the table to vote on who deserves this chance, let's have the process set beforehand that is independent of personal favorites and hatred.

As it turns out, there are TONS of these algorithms. I am not familiar with many of these, but I can see that many of them do not fit the specifications I have.

Specifications? What are these?

- No human element. That means no using preseason rankings or the rankings of any other poll system. The downside to the lack of preseason seeds is the lack of a strong poll after the first few weeks. Until lots of games are played, there is little

- Ignore divisions/associations. Schools often get to choose which division they're in. There should be no bias placed on a team based on where they exist in the politics of athletic conferences.

- Actually, use as little information as possible. Humans can glean a lot of information about a team by watching just one or two games. No doubt this is useful, but how do we quantify it? The big news is: Who won the game? Next: How much did they win by? Let's try to get by using only that much information. Not average yards per carry, or number of sacks or anything. A team can look great, but lose by 14 points. That's all that really matters.

- Instill a max on the margin of victory. Some teams will avoid a complete blow out, using less experienced players once they are winning by a large margin. Thus, we will cap the number of points a team "wins by". Won the game 59 - 3? We're only going to count that as a two-or-three score victory. What is this margin? It is currently at 14 points (do the NCAA algorithms use this?) but that might change to 21 or so. Three touchdowns seems reasonable.

- Ignore the when. A game late in the season should not be worth more than a game early on. This is an arguable point, but I'm sticking with it.

- Openness. I will tell you exactly how I'm doing this. I will publish the algorithm, explain where I'm getting the data, etc. If there are any problems, I'll let you know! Want to suggest a change? Great! Want to try it out yourself and check my work? Great!

Okay, I think those are all my requirements. It's also important to note that I am biased. I teach at Wittenberg University in Ohio, but also am a fan of Michigan. This causes a cascading list of enemies, enemies of enemies, and so forth. I'll try not to inject this bias into an algorithm, but please check me!

With these in mind, here's a description of the algorithm.

All teams start with the same ranking, and we will change the rankings until they appear to converge by changing only a small amount. All rankings will start at .5, and can range from 0 to 1 throughout the course of the algorithm. Each round of altering the rankings has two steps:

First, we'll look at the results of all games each team has played so far. For each of those games, determine the value of the match to that team by multiplying the strength of the opposing team (in the previous round) by the strength of the margin of victory (negative if the team lost that game). So, if Boston University played SUNY ESF, and won by 10 points, then the value of that match, for BU, would be:

f(10) * str(SUNY ESF)

where str is the strength of that team in the previous round, and f is a function from the integers to the range [0, 1].

For each team, calculate these products, then sum up the values from all matched played (so far) this season. This results in a new list of strengths for each team, but not necessarily in the range of 0 to 1.

The second step, then, is to either stretch or shrink that range so that it fits back exactly into the range [0, 1]. Thus, the lowest-ranked team will have value 0, and the top will have value 1 and the ratio of differences between strengths is maintained.

Finally, if the strengths have changed by any non-negligible amount, run the algorithm for another round.

Note that this actually gives us a family of algorithms: one for each choice of function f. When running this algorithm last year, I used a number of different functions, f, to see which I liked more. What makes a good function?
  • It should be non-decreasing. f(10) should not be less than f(-10) or even f(7).

  • Use the whole range. If the maximum-counting margin of victory is 'max', then f(max) = 1 and f(-max) = 0

  • If f(0) is defined, then f(0) = .5 .

  • In fact, if f(x) = .5 + c, then f(-x) = .5 - c.
There are plenty of options here. Last year, I focused mostly on a sinusoidal curve, but I can't recall exactly why.

Alright, that's enough for this post. I'll put up more as the football season gets underway (including the code). Also, I will start to post rankings after each weekend.

Great!